Back at the start of the year, the sun was almost nowhere to be seen, hidden by looming grey clouds and showers across the country. In Ireland, we are no strangers to unpredictable and unlucky weather, but what has caused the rain that has rivaled past January records?
According to a Met Éireann climate statement, it has been confirmed that 22 of the 31 days in January consisted of rainfall, making it the second wettest January for Dublin to date, during which Ireland’s rainfall was 123% of the 1991-2020 Long Term Average (164mm).
Met Éireann also confirmed that South Dublin was among the worst-affected areas for flooding following the showers of Storm Chandra on January 26th and 27th, noting that it was the wettest January the county has seen since 1948. What a way to start 2026!
This heavy rainfall, combined with a mix of low temperatures and strong winds, has been attributed to “repeated frontal rainbands” moving over Ireland from the south due to what has been described as “cold blocking high pressure over northern and eastern Europe.”
The month began with high pressure to the west directing cold Arctic air masses over Ireland. This surprised us with some occasional wintry showers across northern and northwestern parts of the country, where snowfall accumulated. After this, westerly bands of rain and showers closed in, causing temperatures to become somewhat milder moving into the middle of the month.
However, during the latter half of January, a strong southern North Atlantic jet stream was displaced from its usual position, steering a series of low-pressure systems from the southwest towards Ireland. At the same time, a cold blocking high-pressure system over northern and eastern Europe caused these weather systems to halt southwest of Ireland before drifting north.
This meteorological pattern is what led to the continuous frontal rainbands advancing from the south, producing long periods of intense rainfall, particularly in the southern and southeastern parts of the country. This caused the aforementioned flooding, before the month finally concluded with additional bands of showers affecting the South and East predominantly.
Are we to expect this type of rainfall in the future? According to Dr Claire Bergin of Maynooth University, researcher for the Climate Research Centre, “While the potential threats from the two-day rainfall event in the south-east were well communicated to the public, flood defences were seriously tested. With further global warming we can expect the magnitude of rainfall to increase, with more rain falling during events like this.
“This is especially concerning when 30-day rainfall levels are also rising. It increases the likelihood that soils will be saturated and rivers full when heavy rain arrives. A global effort is needed to reduce emissions and limit the effects of warming for everyone.”
With all that being said, and the intense wind and rain having passed, we move forward into what will hopefully be a mild and sunnier rest of 2026 as Spring has just begun!
